Divine Armor Boxes

[Wraythe]

so how many have them LOL and who plan to save them for when they hit lvl 105. I have 1 right now and its a novelty to have. Its for Sale on Macedon Server pm Wraythe or SAMCR0 :) but i like having it makes me feel special. I jsut wonder how many others have them too and did they open it or leave it as a box

[Ebile]

I don't have one, D: How did you get one? Gambling boxes? :o

[LostCause]

interesting that they have higher armor/weapons existing in the game then what the cap lv is set on. Most game i play they cap the weapon/armor/item too.
Got to be a great feeling to know you have something really special. Gratz

[Newell]

I just got one of Argos, first one I think. I came here to ask about it when you stole my topic title! Amazing.

So who can tell me more about this item. What should it sell for? Is it soon to be a useable item?

[Ebile]

I just got one of Argos, first one I think. I came here to ask about it when you stole my topic title! Amazing.

So who can tell me more about this item. What should it sell for? Is it soon to be a useable item?

There's a Lv.105 equipment inside the box, which means we can't use it yet. But i think we are able to use it during the next update :o

[Aura]

lol 105....i wonder how much exp we need for that...XD
since max lvl is 100 now.......ya maybe ppl should start saving them...XD

[bakedpotato]

Sounds like a couple of millions at least :D

[Newell]

Now I'm sort of dissapointed. I can't sell the thing, except to one player. If 100 to 105 is anything like 95-97 exp gap, then it is going to be weeks.

I might just open the damn thing and dismantle whatever the hell I get. Mad experience for that skill. Not to mention craft will be up to the Element level by the time anyone touches 105.

[AtsushiHayami]

don't have T.T but i'll be reaching the lvl for it soon ....

[leawen]

so where do these boxes drop? couple peeps posted that they have it but not what drops it

[Newell]

They came form the Gambler. First one I have ever seen, even after tens of thousands of boxes on Mycenae.

[Gigz]

i got a weapon one :( got a sad staff out of it meh'

[Newell]

Once I get onm looks like current server problems. I am going to open it.

[crazynjay]

dont open it yet..... wait till you 105..........:femalehero:

[HardcoreGamer]

u can try your luck and post it up in the market at an insane price... some rich bastard might actually buy it as it is a collector's item.

[Newell]

I don't even know where to begin with a price. Volcano boxes sell at 1mil ish. Conqueror boxes sell at 4-6mil. This box could be worth, what? 30 mil?

I could imagine the gap from 100-105 is flipping insane.

[Wraythe]

these came form the gambler. I was gambling Shogun Boxes and got this. Ive only gambled roughly 150 boxes. Ive seen a only a few boxes. I might hang on to it its only worth 5-10mil right now on Macedon but once the patch comes im sure the value will triple

[Ferishi]

There's a thing called "Supply and Demand" that increases the amount you can get for an item from the playerbase in general. In this case, demand just isn't as high as it could be when no one can actually USE the item, so I recommend that you wait until people can use it before you sell it.

[Newell]

There's a thing called "Supply and Demand" that increases the amount you can get for an item from the playerbase in general. In this case, demand just isn't as high as it could be when no one can actually USE the item, so I recommend that you wait until people can use it before you sell it.

I love the fact people bring up Supply and Demand like everyone is a Neanderthal. If your on this forum I would more or less assume you know what Supply and Demand is.

Thats just the basics. Not even touching upon microeconomics.

[Wraythe]

did you open it yet newell? ive opened my conq., and 2 freezing boxes. I got a Conq Shield a Freezing Orb and F. Shield. I just dont think my luck will be too good if I open the divine box.. I will get another orb or something.

[Zpirit]

I will get another orb or something.

Then you can dismantle and be on your way to server highest orb crafter :D

[Ferishi]

I love the fact people bring up Supply and Demand like everyone is a Neanderthal.

Exaggeration. Every experienced MMORPGer knows that while not everyone is a Neanderthal, the vast majority is.

[HardcoreGamer]

Lol!
I don't think it is worth it at all!

Get a spear and dismantle it should be ok, lol.

At least you can craft gilgamesh spears and sell em for profit.

[Newell]

I'm opening it now. Bad news, it doesn't suck enough to dismantle.

Good news, it is a Divine HEAVY Armor.

Str: +104
Vit: +141
Def: 4460
Mdef: 140
Ev: 7.8%

So I cant get mad exp for it, since its heavy armor, who the hell would dismantle the most expensive piece of equipment.

But I will be rich in a few weeks.

[Jimsta]

I'm opening it now.
What you get? D:

[Kiena]

I'm opening it now. Bad news, it doesn't suck enough to dismantle.

Good news, it is a Divine HEAVY Armor.

Str: +104
Vit: +141
Def: 4460
Mdef: 140
Ev: 7.8%

So I cant get mad exp for it, since its heavy armor, who the hell would dismantle the most expensive piece of equipment.

But I will be rich in a few weeks.

Nice - congrats! You gonna sell it, then? Bet it takes a while to get a good price, but when it does sell, you'll be rolling in the money. ;)

[Vrael]

I love the fact people bring up Supply and Demand like everyone is a Neanderthal. If your on this forum I would more or less assume you know what Supply and Demand is.

Thats just the basics. Not even touching upon microeconomics.

sadly, you would be very surprised if you think that everyone on this forum knows what supply and demand is

[HardcoreGamer]

I think most of em do actually... but they forgot what is called "profit". Check out the market during weekends, you will know what I mean.

On topic: Hell, that is one piece of ownage EQ! Gratz man! You might be the 1st owner of a lvl 105 heavy armor!

[Wraythe]

talk about luck, nice job...

[MiaFLSurf]

Sweet job man...can you take a screenie to show us?

[Newell]

Yeah sure thing

[Newell]

Here is the armor in all of its glory.

[Spydermage]

pardon my ignorance... divine box not supposed to be in the game yet?

[Newell]

So far we are only certain you can not get past level 100.

Obviously the box is in game :D

[Spydermage]

lucky you then... hehe...

question, the gamble for box thingy, you will always get better box and not lower level box, right?

[Newell]

Correct. Most boxes go up about 2-3 levels. So a spirit will get sea king/angkor/asura osmetimes insect

A babylon might get pyramid to volcano. Sometimes conqueror or defender

[Spydermage]

i have plenty of Bran... time to gamble them away.. :)

[kaiser99]

I gambled 80+ bran and only got some pyrmaid box..

[Spydermage]

oh my... does exchanging one by one makes a diff compared to exchanging 10 or 20 at same time?

[HardcoreGamer]

yes.

The more boxes you gamble, the higher chance to get higher grade boxes.

Heck, I once got a Shogun (lvl 80) box when I was gambling 100 spirit boxes at lvl 20 ish. I was like "WTF??"

[Keats]

Gambled 45 pyramids one by one and i got 6 shoguns and 2 volcano
But spirit and sea king you can gamble it 100 by 100

[SparkGun]

I remember gambling 25 spirit boxes and getting a volcano box:D

[Spydermage]

so its all about luck... :) i will try one by one... just to 'increase' the chance.. haha

[Newell]

Thats the exact opposite of what you should do...

[HardcoreGamer]

There is no certain way to determine how much to gamble to get the optimum results. Just that gambling in large numbers increases the chance to get even higher grade boxes.

[Newell]

There is no certain way to determine how much to gamble to get the optimum results. Just that gambling in large numbers increases the chance to get even higher grade boxes.

That holds true a little bit. It doesn't increase your chance more then it does in returning the items of same value

This same value hinders on the market. Thats why bran castle boxes are best with a high market value for pyramids, brans more then likely return many pyramid boxes.

If I gamble 2 pyramids, I may get 1 Osiris. If I gamble 10 pyramids I might get 3 or 4 Osiris boxes. Then again if I gamble 2 pyramids I might get a conqueror box. If I gamble 10 pyramids I might get 2 osiris.

The number only increases chance for success in relation to the basic return rate. The amount increases chance for a higher grade box only because, your obviously doing more boxes which sum up to a greater value of that higher box. You have the same chance to get Shogun with 1 pyramid as you are with 10 pyramids. Its just you succeed more with the higher box number.

[Keats]

Yes but since box begin to be harder to get you may not want to lose 10 pyramid in one time
But yea with easy box till bran just put 100 by 100

[Jimsta]

I just toss in all my boxes I get from a marks run, usually end up with some nice boxes and it's free. :p

To cheap to buy boxes in bulk from market...

[Newell]

Yes but since box begin to be harder to get you may not want to lose 10 pyramid in one time
But yea with easy box till bran just put 100 by 100

Thats the thing. Would you rather loose 8 of those 10 boxes? Or maybe split the 10 into 5 and 5 and have a better shot at getting more then 1 or 2 Osiris or shogun?

You could sell those 10 pyramids for, lets say, 100k each. Thats 1mil. But lets say your "smart" and try a single box trade in for all 10 boxes. You succeed at 2 of the trades, netting you 1 Osiris and 1 shogun box. 250k for the Osiris, 350k for the shogun. You lost money. You minimized your losses. Since your losing money anyways, you can go for broke and do all 10. Which succeeds way more then 1 and 1. Next thing you know, you have 4 shogun boxes, netting you a lovely 400k extra over your pyramids.

It is gambling, you will fail sometimes, but the rewards are very very good. After some experience you will know what to do to succeed. All I can say is 1 by 1 will get you no where.

Take the mans example earlier. 45 pyramids, he got 6 shoguns and 2 volcanoes. 4.5mil for pyramids, yet he only got maybe 3.5-4mil back.

Now if he went by 5's, I guarantee you he would of made more money.

[Keats]

Thats the thing. Would you rather loose 8 of those 10 boxes? Or maybe split the 10 into 5 and 5 and have a better shot at getting more then 1 or 2 Osiris or shogun?

You could sell those 10 pyramids for, lets say, 100k each. Thats 1mil. But lets say your "smart" and try a single box trade in for all 10 boxes. You succeed at 2 of the trades, netting you 1 Osiris and 1 shogun box. 250k for the Osiris, 350k for the shogun. You lost money. You minimized your losses. Since your losing money anyways, you can go for broke and do all 10. Which succeeds way more then 1 and 1. Next thing you know, you have 4 shogun boxes, netting you a lovely 400k extra over your pyramids.

It is gambling, you will fail sometimes, but the rewards are very very good. After some experience you will know what to do to succeed. All I can say is 1 by 1 will get you no where.

Take the mans example earlier. 45 pyramids, he got 6 shoguns and 2 volcanoes. 4.5mil for pyramids, yet he only got maybe 3.5-4mil back.

Now if he went by 5's, I guarantee you he would of made more money.

The man was me.
You can guarantee it's all about luck i could also failed every gamble you can't be sure

From the lowest price in market right now :

45 pyramids = 2m7
8 shoguns = 2m7
2 volcano = 2m

where did i lose money ?

[Marisa the Rainmaker]

Thats the thing. Would you rather loose 8 of those 10 boxes? Or maybe split the 10 into 5 and 5 and have a better shot at getting more then 1 or 2 Osiris or shogun?

I've tried this before with spirit boxes (Gambler title). In about 350 spirit boxes, I managed to get a return of less than 10 sea king boxes. No other boxes whatsoever; more than 20% of the boxes that I gamble one-on-one tends to fail miserably. On the other hand, when I hand in around 15-20 bran castle boxes, I get 4x dark knight or pyramid rather consistently.

You'll probably end up losing money either way with DeMere. Might as well make the losses worth it imo and actually get somewhere with the gambling =p.

[Newell]

60k is to cheap for pyramids, they average 100k. Volcanoes were 600k, someone bought them out.

Shoguns are a little below avg, so i hand you that one.

So you evened out thanks to the volcano jump. Pyramids are not sppose to be 60k, if I had the money and it wasn't tied up in my shogun boxes, or my drag crystals, or my dk boxes, then id buy them out.

[Newell]

I've tried this before with spirit boxes (Gambler title). In about 350 spirit boxes, I managed to get a return of less than 10 sea king boxes. No other boxes whatsoever; more than 20% of the boxes that I gamble one-on-one tends to fail miserably. On the other hand, when I hand in around 15-20 bran castle boxes, I get 4x dark knight or pyramid rather consistently.

You'll probably end up losing money either way with DeMere. Might as well make the losses worth it imo and actually get somewhere with the gambling =p.

Broad statement. It all relies on the market. Personally, on Mycenae, I turned 3.5mil into 180mil in a few weeks using DeMere. So I know for a fact you gain money :D

And no I won't share my secrets.

~Walks away on is Byzantine Elephant~

[Marisa the Rainmaker]

Broad statement. It all relies on the market. Personally, on Mycenae, I turned 3.5mil into 180mil in a few weeks using DeMere. So I know for a fact you gain money :D

And no I won't share my secrets.

~Walks away on is Byzantine Elephant~

Fine *pouts*.

I wish I can have that kind of luck with volcano, though. No matter what boxes I exchange, I could never get anything over a 10% return rate (usually 5%). =x.

[meloku2]

Broad statement. It all relies on the market. Personally, on Mycenae, I turned 3.5mil into 180mil in a few weeks using DeMere. So I know for a fact you gain money :D

And no I won't share my secrets.

~Walks away on is Byzantine Elephant~

that sounds like an exploit xD lol.

pms gm.

jk :D:D

[HardcoreGamer]

Lol, that is not true man.

You seldom lose money, I found it quite a good way to earn money.

My most recent statistics:

250 insect, split to 10 x 25 and gamble 10 boxes each time.

This is what I get:

1. 4 Shogun boxes
2. 25 Bran Castle Boxes
3. 5 Babylon Boxes
4. 3 Osiris Boxes
5. 3 Pyramid Boxes
6. 10 Dark Knight Boxes

Then I gambled my 25 bran castles in 2 batches of 10 and 1 batch of 5.

Then I got:

1. 5 Dark Knight Boxes
2. 1 Osiris Boxes



Pretty worth it aye?

[cfk]

Typically 100% profit margin, but market conditions of late too unfavorable.

[Marisa the Rainmaker]

Lol, that is not true man.

You seldom lose money, I found it quite a good way to earn money.

My most recent statistics:

(100 sea king boxes, split into 10x10):
9 Failures
3 Bran Castle Boxes

It seems like De Mere just hates me that much =x.

[methane]

Seriously its all about luck. Sometimes you gamble a few hundred and end up getting crap boxes or losing them in whole. Well pretty much random. Unless you want to try your luck or lazy to sell those boxes, gambling them is the thing for you.

[HardcoreGamer]

Lol, just wait till you get lucky.

And btw, i gamble sea kings in 100s.

Got myself a conqueror box out of one batch =/

still holding on to it, dunno what to do with it.

[Keats]

Lol, just wait till you get lucky.

And btw, i gamble sea kings in 100s.

Got myself a conqueror box out of one batch =/

still holding on to it, dunno what to do with it.

Gimme?:p

just tried 50 bran in batch of 10 : all failed

[Spydermage]

lost all 110 bran of mine... got nothing... i cant believe it 0.0

[HardcoreGamer]

Tough luck then =/

So far i had nice stuff out from gambling boxes... except 1 incident where i lost 32 asuras...

[Newell]

Don't ever gamble asuras. There return is just like Angkor Wat. You flush all money down the drain with asuras, regardless of what you get.

[HardcoreGamer]

Now I wish I knew that earlier! I always thought that Asura is higher than Angkor Wat >.<

Another statistic:

20 Insect, gambled in 4 batches of 5:
1. 1 Dark Knight Box
2. 2 Bran Castle Box

Meh...

[Demon]

Whats good to gamble newell my good buddy! do share!

[SparkGun]

Gambled 124 bran boxes in 10 increments and got ...
2 volcano boxes
9 dark knight boxes
6 babylon boxes

[Ferishi]

I wonder what you might get for gambling a bunch of Divine Armour boxes...

[LanAltec8]

I'm still only about level 35 so I haven't tried gambling high level boxes too much, really only Spirit and Sea King.

From what I've seen, gambling from increments of 20 to 100, the only way to do much with Spirit and Sea King boxes is to get a fluke Pyramid+ box using 100+ boxes. If you're really lucky, you might hit a string of Asuras and make a decent profit. But more often than not, you end up with a few Ankgor Wat, Insect, or Bran Castle boxes which don't even out in terms of gold.

Ankgor Wat, Insect, and Bran Castle boxes just aren't worth anywhere near the amount of gold (at least on my server) as the value they're given when gambling for them. So from gambling any less than 100 of those boxes, I think you have to be very lucky to make any sort of real profit. And even that profit from my experience hasn't been much.

I assume when I get a higher level gambling Insect Boxes and Bran Castle boxes will give huge returns for the same reason that gambling Spirit and Sea King sucks. The boxes past those actually have high market values that match up with how much they gambler values them.

[cfk]

Seriously its all about luck. Sometimes you gamble a few hundred and end up getting crap boxes or losing them in whole. Well pretty much random. Unless you want to try your luck or lazy to sell those boxes, gambling them is the thing for you.

Like the dude says, it's not luck. It's statistics. Statistics only work in your favor if you understand what you're dealing with (takes enough experience trying) and gamble enough to where the statistics even out. Doing 3 spirit boxes and either failing all, or getting a divine box, isn't a big enough sample to say anything.

I wonder what you might get for gambling a bunch of Divine Armour boxes...

A spirit box. 1.

[Aura]

lol actually lots of ppl make huge amount of gold from gambling...
i dunno how but saw lots of professional gambler made like 30m or more in just 3 mins....and it only costs them about 10m to do so...
rumor says even they have bad luck, they still can get that 10m back instead of losing them

[meloku2]

lol actually lots of ppl make huge amount of gold from gambling...
i dunno how but saw lots of professional gambler made like 30m or more in just 3 mins....and it only costs them about 10m to do so...
rumor says even they have bad luck, they still can get that 10m back instead of losing them

cough who lost like 30mil last night cough.

Gambler hates me i never make money off him, buy 10 volcano box gamble 1by1 and all fails xD. I would really like to found out how these "pros" make so much money i seen it they gamble and they get high value box in return, so i go try and lose everything.:eek::(:(:(

[leawen]

some just have bad luck .. I was messing with the warehouse in rome oneday and watched a guy gamble off 1by1 liek 100+ bran box's course at the same time some other guy was feeding vulcan or what ever his name is anu swords about just as fast hehe

[Marisa the Rainmaker]

Like the dude says, it's not luck. It's statistics. Statistics only work in your favor if you understand what you're dealing with (takes enough experience trying) and gamble enough to where the statistics even out. Doing 3 spirit boxes and either failing all, or getting a divine box, isn't a big enough sample to say anything.

Statistics = Probability Theory = Luck. If you have a 60% chance to make a 200% profit and a 40% chance to lose 10%, and you keep on hittign that 40% chance, then you will lose. It all depends on how nice the server's RNG feels at a particular time.

[HardcoreGamer]

@.@ I sucked at Probabilty Theory 101...

Anyway, you are lucky when you are, you are unlucky when u are... that's the simple way to put it.

Still at least you won't lose all the time... unlike arena betting

[cfk]

Statistics = Probability Theory = Luck. If you have a 60% chance to make a 200% profit and a 40% chance to lose 10%, and you keep on hittign that 40% chance, then you will lose. It all depends on how nice the server's RNG feels at a particular time.

And ideally a PRNG will produce an even distribution over time, one of the primary concerns of designing one.

I'm not following what your point is with your example of the obvious, by saying if you lose, you lose.

If the system were, as your example, 60%- 200% profit, 40% - 10% loss, then the painfully obvious conclusion is to gamble your heart out because over time and gamble volume you average out to 76% profit.

That's just a general example of course. But as I said, if you are familiar with the some factors that influence the gambling system, or at least know a few subtleties/tricks/odds, then you can play it out for profit.

[Marisa the Rainmaker]

Ideally, a perfect RNG will produce a perfectly even distribution over an infinite time. None of us, unfortunately, have an infinite amount of boxes to distribute, so the factor of chance applies for those of us with either limited budgets or limited patience, both of which unfortunately are typical in the real and game world.

Say, for example, you have a 60% chance for a 200% profit. Now, you have a total of 6 million to work with, and you spend 5 million of them on...oh, let's say Pyramid Castle boxes. This nets you a total of 53 boxes. Now, let's say you gamble them in packs of fives and get the following result:

1 Volcano Box
1 Osiris Box

THAT is where luck comes in. With your remaining 1 mil, you no longer want to buy any more pyramid boxes to gamble after that horrendous luck; understandable, after all. NOW, you have just lost a crapton of money on Gambler de Mere, and there's no long-run on this because you obviously can't magically generate gold out of nowhere.

So there you go. In the long run, enhancing is better than enchant, too. However, if you tried to enhance an expensive armor when you don't have the means to achieve that long run, you have a chance to lose money. That is what luck is.

[Newell]

cough who lost like 30mil last night cough.

Gambler hates me i never make money off him, buy 10 volcano box gamble 1by1 and all fails xD. I would really like to found out how these "pros" make so much money i seen it they gamble and they get high value box in return, so i go try and lose everything.:eek::(:(:(

Thats just stupid. We have already stated that 1 by 1 in the worst possible thing you can do.

Plus, with volcano boxes? Unless you are actually in need of better eq, don't buy volcanoes. Thats say 8mil worth, 800k a box, if you game the respectable about of maybe 3-5 the conqueror box barly gives you profit, if you succeed both times.

I do nothing else but Babylons, Pyramids, and Osiris if I feel like it. Babylons are ideal.

[HardcoreGamer]

Buy more cheap stuff and gamble at large number, higher chance of return rate... buy expenisve boxes and gamble one by one, bound to lose money.

[cfk]

Ideally, a perfect RNG will produce a perfectly even distribution over an infinite time. None of us, unfortunately, have an infinite amount of boxes to distribute, so the factor of chance applies for those of us with either limited budgets or limited patience, both of which unfortunately are typical in the real and game world.

Say, for example, you have a 60% chance for a 200% profit. Now, you have a total of 6 million to work with, and you spend 5 million of them on...oh, let's say Pyramid Castle boxes. This nets you a total of 53 boxes. Now, let's say you gamble them in packs of fives and get the following result:

1 Volcano Box
1 Osiris Box

THAT is where luck comes in. With your remaining 1 mil, you no longer want to buy any more pyramid boxes to gamble after that horrendous luck; understandable, after all. NOW, you have just lost a crapton of money on Gambler de Mere, and there's no long-run on this because you obviously can't magically generate gold out of nowhere.

So there you go. In the long run, enhancing is better than enchant, too. However, if you tried to enhance an expensive armor when you don't have the means to achieve that long run, you have a chance to lose money. That is what luck is.

The discrepancies from a generic PRNG vs TRNG is not issue.

Yes the larger sample size approaching infinity and the more "perfect" distribution is, but infinite is not neccessary, perfect is not neccessary. Some measure of quantity is, and "pretty close to" or "decently" even is sufficient for purpose of profit.

My point is profit is not dependent wholly on "luck" or how fickle the RNG is at the moment. Profit is working the underlying mechanics which rely on a RNG, but will yield a decently even result with a reasonable sample size.

I have never gambled fewer than 100 boxes of anything, unless it was purely to get rid of them without care (20 bran boxes in my inventory from an invasion, for an example).

Your example of 1 volcano, 1 osiris is a non issue for me, as the WORST I have ever done with all randomness and bad luck considered, is breaking even. Once again, because there are a few things I angle my betting on.

Obviously money is not infinite, nor boxes. Yet, with each profitable batch of boxes sold on market, I fund the next gamble set, which usually takes at least a day or two later.

Right now each gamble run costs me about 20 mil, and I end up about double coming out, though usually I end up keeping some of it in form of equipment for my level/upcoming level.

[Marisa the Rainmaker]

I never argued the difference between Pseudorandom RNGs or True RNGs. My point was simply that it is possible - with a wide enough probability to take into consideration - for you to gamble and lose money as a result, no matter what sort of tactics you employ.

Sure, it may be a non-issue for you. You may just have better luck than some people, or you may just be divinely blessed with good results on Atlantica's RNGs. Or maybe it's Meybelline. Either way, I refuted your claims simply because in my experiences, I have rarely ever made money gambling via De Mere. I have tried multiple times gambling everything from spirit boxes to bran castle boxes in to 100's, in the 10's, in the 20's, and in the 5's, and I could say, with confidence, that none of these attempts have netted me a positive profit. Perhaps Pyramid is different and somehow, it makes up for everything and makes the losses disappear at a 95+% rate; given my experiences, however, it's not something that I would dare to try.

See, you can discuss your personal experience all you want, and I obviously can't argue if you claim to have made a profit with De Mere. However, in MY OWN experience, I know that after around 10k boxes traded in total, I have made no margin of profit and suffered a percentage loss for my investment (I know I lost a good chuck of 100 boxes when I traded those in bulk); maybe it's just because I don't know the secret handshake to gambling successfully 100% of the time, but given that alone, I have to call into question your claims of "With gambling, you will always win."

Indeed, you don't need true infinity to conclude some asymphtotic properties, but that does not mean that the experiences of a select group of successful gamblers automatically make the entire unobserved population "pretty close to" always netting a profit. What if the chance to not make a profit on, say, a pack of 100 boxes is 25%? Then, you could be hitting the successes at a high rate and walk away with a good amount of winnings, while someone in the game - and a good numbers of someones to boot - could be losing a ton of gold on the NPC. That can be summed up to the word "luck;" even if the chance of success is triple the chance of failure, the chance of failure is high enough to actually be significant, and you just didn't hit the numbers in the RNG to observe this.

Maybe you're right. Maybe the chance to not make profit is only 5% or less and I'm just unlucky as hell, but that, like yours, is my experience, and it's what I have to base my conclusions on.

[cfk]

Hell of a post 150. I'm still a dozen+ off, I'll have to wind up to that.

If you're arguing the existence of possibility of failure, then of course, there is no denying that you could very well lose consistently no matter what the odds or mechanics. It's entirely possible I have two horseshoes up my ass and poking out my ears for all my gambling success. It's a moot point by this last post to argue down this line.

To cut this a little short, let me clarify a little better on what the gambling process is for me. The average Joe would be insane to have through these walls of text to this point, so I don't particularly care if a few picked up a thing or two.

First, I'm going to make the assumption that you accept the following:

- If there is somehow an underlying mechanic to this gambler...somehow if there were actual programming code that dictated specific output odds based on inputs...there might well be reliable, predictable results over time. Statistics, mathematics all mean something and are applicable.

- Also, it is possible as a player to discern resulting rough patterns and relationships over time. In that regard, I've put in about 30K+ boxes so far, so the theories behind my methods aren't completely unfounded.

I'm not naive enough to think that any gambler could be coded to favor profit, the house should be coded to always win. If this were an argument about enhancing (something I only try when I'm drunk) which has the simple mechanic of a coin flip, I wouldn't go beyond a simple anecdote or two in this thread.

The defining factor for box gambling profit is the player market, which happily breaks box prices free of the internal "values" of the gambler. If box prices were set, yes, I would expect continual and consistent loss. However, players like to post certain boxes at values far higher than they are "worth" and therein lies the extremely simple source of profit from gambling. By the gambler's internal value of returns, you lose with large volume of gambling, but as your items sell on market, you're winning on cash.

[Marisa the Rainmaker]

I accept the two conditions, of course. I'm not trying to argue for the game mechanic favoring failures within a free-market system, since I do realize that it is possible for a player-given price to heavily skew the winning percentages. I don't even question the possibility that the odds favor the players when gambling in certain box sizes, since there are enough testimonies to the rate to support the chances being with the player.

However, the question remains this: what are the actual chances for a player to profit or at least break even with the boxes? Us statisticians love the number 95, and indeed, a ninety-five percentage chance is a number that most people would undoubtedly jump on despite the miniscule chance that they could continuously lost. However, what if the chance is only 75% to profit/break even with a particular gamble? I'll compare the two with a real-life example:

Suppose if a completely trustworthy man - say, Mr. X - were to propose a system of random number betting, in which I would insert $10000 USD into a sealed box. A number - either 1, 2, or 3 is then generated, and if the number is 1, I will get $20000 in returns, effectively netting me a profit margin of 100%. If the number is 2, I will get $5000 back, effectively netting a net loss of 50%. If the number is 3, I lose everything.

Let's assume that the chances of each particular number is already known to me. For argument's sake, we'll say that there is a 95% chance that 1 is generated, a 4% chance that a 2 is generated, and a 1% chance that a 3 is generated. With those odds, I, as a person, would probably immediately take the deal and gamble over and over again simply because I see the situation as a winner. The likelihood that I would lose is so small that it no longer matters. In fact, in such a case, most people would take the bet without a second thought; who really cares about that 5% chance to lose, anyway?

Now, assume that there's a 75% chance that a 1 is generated, a 15% chance that a 2 is given, and a 10% chance that a 3 appears. In this case, the situation becomes more blurred; it still favors the player by a good margin, but a lot of more conservative spenders and non risk-takers would think twice before investing in such a gamble. Sure, you will win in the long run, but there is now a considerable probability that after all of your gambles, you come out with a loss rather than a profit. Assuming finite income and resources with no lender sharks/bank lending, some of us - such as me - would shy away from such a transaction unless if we really have too much money to burn on a game of chance.

The boxes are the same. Sure, the odds may be (and it's still a maybe, since the information gathered is quite limited) faborable to the players instead of the house, but that does not mean that every player will win from gambling. If the chance to profit is 95%, then the chance to not profit is minimal, and the factor of luck is minimal as a result. If the chance to profit is only 75%, then the chance to not profit is no longer minimal, and there will be a considerable number of players that lose money from gambles. Here, despite odds, luck begins to play a more or less significant role in whether you profit from De Mere, and some players - especially ones with more limited capital - may shy away from him after realizing the odds.

That's basically what depending on luck means. The odds may favor the player, but a non-negligable chance to not profit will still mean that a good number of people will lose from gambling even as the majority rakes in their wins.

[cfk]

K, for arguments sake, I'll consider your example of 75/15/10. Yes, despite the odds being better than the 50% coin toss enhance... 25% of gambles will incur loss.

However, this is 25% of gambles, not 25% of gamblers.

Back to my first point: If a a player gambles more and more, will his results not fall closer and closer to even distribution (75/15/10 ratio), and thus come out ahead to about 60% profit margin in this case?

[Marisa the Rainmaker]

It would. I just checked the probability and realized that I wasn't thinking clearly when I computed the probabilities. With 100 gambles at 75% probability, there should be approximately zero chance that a profit isn't netted =x.

Looks like I am wrong in this argument. I'll go buy a few more boxes and test out the results now. Sorry about the long argument =x.

[cfk]

Problem I'm getting on Macedon is that cash boxes are staying dead constant while all other boxes are going up in cost. Cutting my monies :/

[cfk]

Just gambled..

IN: 155 Pyramids Boxes @ 69.x, -> 10.6M

OUT:

17 x Osiris ( 170K -> 2.9M )
21 x Shogun ( 220K -> 4.6M )
5 x Volcano ( 685K -> 3.4 M )
1 x Conqueror ( 3.3M )

Total (assuming everything sells as is without crazy market drop): 14.2M, 34% profit.

[LanAltec8]

Would you mind saying how many boxes at a time you gambled or are you keeping that a secret or something?

[Ruggan]

I wouldn't rely on this as a source of income, more gambling than anything.

[LanAltec8]

I think there has to be some sort of timing thing to it too or else I have the worst luck ever and a few people on my server have the best.

I've watched people come in trading 10 Insect boxes and fail maybe once out of 10. I've tried on multiple occasions to trade 10 Insect boxes and although I haven't had terrible luck, I do lose 5+ trades consistently. I'm just lucky that landing even 1 Shogun box in that time pays for the gambling and then some. Maybe it will even out and I have some great luck coming, but so far in many attempts I've always lost at least 5 of my trades while other people have come in at different times trading the exact same amounts as me I know and only losing 1 to 2 trades.

[Newell]

I wouldn't rely on this as a source of income, more gambling than anything.

Then your mistaken. It is an obvious source of great income. Especially if you get melee items in those high up boxes. Depending on the market I usually open anything volcano and up.I still gain, but I have a chance of greater gain.

Example: I once did 20 Babylons, which netted me 1 conqueror box. That conqueror box yielded a heavy armor which sold for 13mil. I either sell the box at 3-4mil, worst case scenario I get a cannon or some stupid shit like that and still net 1mil or more.

[cfk]

In : 190 Pyramid boxes @ 79K -> 15M

Out:

6 x Volcano Boxes ( 800K -> 4.8M)
1 x Conquerer (3M?)
4 x Shogun Box (300K -> 1.2M)
70 Osiris Box (230K -> 16.1M)

Total: 25M

Of course, I completed my gambling ritual by offering about half of my profits to Vulcan with ... not the best of results. Gotta fix that habit.

[LanAltec8]

Do you just never fail a trade or something? Because no matter what amount of boxes you turn in at a time (between 1-15) with 190 boxes, that's a lot of boxes to get in return. And a good amount of boxes with multi-tier jumps. Is that basically a typical result for your gambling? That's either an absurd amount of luck or there's more to it than one would think.

[Zpirit]

Box gambling works like this:

First it rolls which type of box you get, then it rolls each box against that type.

So say if you get the volcano box type, and the chance of getting it from a Pyramid Box is 25%, then if you gamble 20 Pyramid Box, you should get at 5 Volc on average.

Same applies to other boxes, the only time it will fail is when you roll a high box like Conq, Freezing or even Divine, then your chance of success goes down to say 1% and none of the 20 Pyramid boxes rolls in to the 1% and it will say all failed.

Conclusion, always gamble enough boxes so you don't fail the good boxes. Gambling 1 at a time is a terrible way to gamble.

[Newell]

Box gambling works like this:

First it rolls which type of box you get, then it rolls each box against that type.

So say if you get the volcano box type, and the chance of getting it from a Pyramid Box is 25%, then if you gamble 20 Pyramid Box, you should get at 5 Volc on average.

Same applies to other boxes, the only time it will fail is when you roll a high box like Conq, Freezing or even Divine, then your chance of success goes down to say 1% and none of the 20 Pyramid boxes rolls in to the 1% and it will say all failed.

Conclusion, always gamble enough boxes so you don't fail the good boxes. Gambling 1 at a time is a terrible way to gamble.

Case in Point, thank you for finally sealing the fact bulk works better then single.