The Arena gambling thread

[Teesa]

So far in arena its really random as i can see making money in arena is hard.... Pls share your secret methods of winning in arena

[methane]

Ahhh gambling....reminds me on how much i have lost there.......... So far i see no real way to gurantee a win in the arena. Probably the only one to know is the gm themselves. Also betting on multiple char will increase your chances of winning but if you lose you lose more. Its kinda like a risk thingy and also i ever heard before you can make a maximum of 10bets at anyone time. So probably you can try to derive a formula by making use of the 10betting limits in one shot.

[Teesa]

Its Ai, knowing the Gm wont help... i feel that betting 10 at one time is not viable , especially when odds fall to 3 and even below .......

[HolyDot]

i normally bet on those with 2artillery mercs
seems to be 70ish % win for me.. tho i havent betted for 2weeks but i will still stick with this style..

[kaiser99]

Gambling... I used the betting on 10merc way. And it worked... okay
Overall i still win abit of money, but there a key to it, its also risky..

[methane]

All in all it all boils down to luck. Ever seen a group of 3spearman hitting a column with only one merc there.......Yes it was Saijo.....that match made me lost millions... Really all about luck. Build which are ridiculous may still win against well organised built since its all Ai. Except for the fact beatrice with 4 or 5archers.. Only way to probably win is from turn one they snipe enemy main....

[MiaFLSurf]

The way I come out on top is betting on the FINALS matchup......

I pick the 10 longest shot odds for finals match ups and bet equal on them all.

Its a 10/16 shot at winning and usually each pays over 10x so I come out + money every time....

[HolyDot]

yea **** happens at times, i once lost 5million on betting on saijo (last min betting, didnt had time to think much =/) he lost to arkinspray who was the last one standing at the end and dealt 3 meteorstrikes to wipe saijo.. *sigh*

[kaiser99]

lol... saijo... like one of my fren, he bet 7mil on saijo....
personally.... if possible i would avoid betting on him.... the dividend is wayyyy to bad for a *hot* merc like him.

[methane]

You wouldn't say that way if you have seen how he fare if he was with 2other arti..... I saw him in his previous fight and he practically own his enemies and won the fight.....out of the the 3matches for that day 2 matches he was in and he won both.......following day i went bet and **** he lost in the first round...

[kaiser99]

You wouldn't say that way if you have seen how he fare if he was with 2other arti..... I saw him in his previous fight and he practically own his enemies and won the fight.....out of the the 3matches for that day 2 matches he was in and he won both.......following day i went bet and **** he lost in the first round...

What do you mean by own?...
So overall you won or lose money?

[nem4z17esis]

I usually pick a character with at least one izumo(shaman) because of how crazy those brutal will is in the match

[cfk]

Some big betters I'm told just pick some arenas to do 10 split on each person, the gamble being ultimately if the winner's div > 10.

Or maybe I misundesrstood and its instead betting on final final rounds in which there's 16 possible combinations. Betting on 10 of highest dividends gets darn good mathematical odds.

As far as trying to pick the winner by analyzing builds...ugh. Theres of course obvious superior builds or crappy ones that help you pick your 10/16 but still the inevitable randomness always sickens me.

[l3g3nd]

arena is all about luck ^^

[Ludacris]

I normally bet on the two arty mercs, Ive won more than ive lost.

Luda

[laz]

I never bid on Arki :D

I wish other contestants were as reliable.

[instakiller]

a friend told me he looks at the peoples formation to judge whos gonna win. I think we should take his advice because he won 15mil from it -_-.

But if we look at the formation, what would make it a good formation or bad formation if anyone has any info about this.

[jesada89237]

I suggest not going off of the formations. I bet on either Saijo or Beatrice because both of them like using brutal will, no matter what formation they have. And everyone knows...brutal will in the arena = pwnage.

[Xaphyr]

You bet based on the formation and the main and compare it to who it will fight against. You need to do this for 4 times, and then decide who will advance to semi-final.

The dividend plays the second most important part. If you bet only 1 person, you have very low chance to win unless one has a very dominant formation, but even then it is too risky. You need to bet more than one so that you can cover your bet incase your primary pick loses.

You may see people win 20mil, but minus tax and minus their other bets the winnings isn't as much as you think it is. I can bet 3mil on one NPC with a low dividend, but bet 1.5mil on NPC with higher dividend, and break even when one loses, or gain a little.

If you're confident enough you can also bet first/second which usually has a decent dividend. Betting on final can also give you a little better dividend.

I generally make money 90% of the time or better. It is ALL based on covering your bets and only betting on ones who have good formation that goes well with the main. The reason why nobody shares detailed information on who will win is because by you betting on the possible winner you lower the dividend, thus lowering the money they win. Besides that, it is A LOT of homework studying which formations are good and which aren't.

[LtKillroy]

It's way too random for me to like it, I am not a very big fan of gambling. Though personally I find it better to spread out then betting everything on one guy.

[Plum]

okkk tips for gambling? :p

1.you must have passed 10th standard maths and be able to do simple multiplication and division(stay away from the arena if you cant):D

2.monks in the arena are OMF useless.they will almost NEVER use awakening and HG and even if they do its on the wrong mercs.:mnk: =/= awake/HG

which brings us to...

3.cannon/arti groups of atleast 2 have a good chance of winning because of how retarded monks are+they hit 5 mercs so even with bad ai they *might* get some1 stunned.:art::can:

figure the rest out yourselves xD

[A13x]

yea i also bet always on a Guy with one ore more Artys. Seems to be the strongest merc in the arena, couse of stupid AI. :D

[kaiser99]

Thats why saijo is the super *hot* till i have see before its dividend... 1.1 at the last minute.....

[Teesa]

Sajio is the MAN, but sometimes dark horses like Raphael wins..... can some one explain on the maths part ?

[Wraythe]

i was reading about the if SAijo has 2 arties hes going to win build. as i was betting 5mil on the arena i chose not to follow that advice...... Saijo won lol

[Xaphyr]

I thought I had a sure thing yesterday, and like Teesa said blackhorses like Raphael win.

I lost 10mil. Can't win them all :(

[MiaFLSurf]

I agree abou Monks being useless... in essence SHamans are useless too...they dont ever heal.

[LostCause]

These days Saijo is like the favorite regardless of his formation. Everytime i make it to the arena to bet. His odds are harder over 3.1. Wish they can redo the ai a little bit so that cannon/arty dont hold such an advantage. Woudl be fun to see some actually tactic in their fights so it get ppl guessing more.

[Marisa the Rainmaker]

I actually don't mind the low odds for Saijo. It makes victories all the sweeter when Beatrice wins =p.

I have horrid luck in the arena, though, so I've resolved to never bet anything over 10k. Even with 10k, having a return of over 200k on the areas is satisfying enough for me; if I win, yay. If I lose, it's no big deal, and I can reassure myself by realizing that I spend at least 40 times that amount on leveling my crafting alone.

[LostCause]

I actually don't mind the low odds for Saijo. It makes victories all the sweeter when Beatrice wins =p.

I have horrid luck in the arena, though, so I've resolved to never bet anything over 10k. Even with 10k, having a return of over 200k on the areas is satisfying enough for me; if I win, yay. If I lose, it's no big deal, and I can reassure myself by realizing that I spend at least 40 times that amount on leveling my crafting alone.

Yeah i do the same i play the arena for fun but lucky you are not on my server becuase your would be having nightmare because Beat is also another merc that have ultra low odds most of the time. Her odds tend to hoover from 3-7. So in your case even if Beat wins it wont be that sweet after all unless u want to laugh and rub it in to all those Saijo betters :D

[Keats]

If only the arena hours were different :(
but yeah the few times i tried i was shocked by the stupid ai and arty > all :x

[Locksley]

No, I bet on mich, and he beats saijo along the way to winning the arena. sure he did that only once, but it sure hurt the saijo betters.
And raph, the ONE time he won on macedon, he defeated beatrice on first round, and beatrice had the 3 arty, 2 gunner formation.
Or when alki mana drains the crap out of opponents, and sits there, doing her one-woman slow torture kill thing while her opponents have NOTHING to hit the little flier (biggest, & most common victim would be jeanne). excruciating slow, but funny battle. I still laugh when i think abt it. Just alki, and all other mercs dead, and she wins cuze she flies.

[Aura]

usually the teams with 2 arti, 3 or more gunner, 3 or more spearman + 1 shaman = win.........but sometimes it is just risky...because ai is just like a dumbass lol...you will never except where they go >_>

[cfk]

usually the teams with 2 arti, 3 or more gunner, 3 or more spearman + 1 shaman = win.........but sometimes it is just risky...because ai is just like a dumbass lol...you will never except where they go >_>

This.

Last saijo match w/ an art and an izumo, 3 spears.

Not ONE stun vs jean's tightly packed first two rows. So much fail.

I suppose point is that despite what you could analyze of the forms beforehand, the factor of their random AI level will always throw off everything.

[HardcoreGamer]

Arenas are evil... formations are the just to fool you... I mean heck! Beatrice with 4 gunners, all out front, won against Saijo with 2 Sm, a viking and a spearman on Argos. How is that possible? The gunners should drop down 1 by 1 like flies but instead they owned the melees... conclusion, arena betting is evil. I lost more than 10m from that >.>

[crazynjay]

i won in arena only once after that no more wins for me

[kaiser99]

Awww, i have slowly... start to make moeny out of arena... even though my max bet is 10k
we4ird huh

[HardcoreGamer]

I won a lot at 1st... like roughly 10m... then i got addicted then lost 20m altogether.

Then i quit Macedon and proceeded to Argos coz I am flat broke at Macedon >.<

[zerokio]

rofl don't worry, there's ppl who lost... way more >> like me... i lost around 100m to arena ;p

[Wraythe]

no matter who i bet on ..I lose i would much rather gamble Boxes i seem to make more money when i get stuff i can actually sell unlike this Lvl 105 Divine Armor box

[Demon]

cleo is my favourite!

[bakedpotato]

I should start experience with this Arena gambling thing. From what I got so far, you can't really count on AI formations :(

[Kiena]

Anyone remember back in CB how Alexandra won almost every single fight? I miss that. :p

[aphrodite]

in the oldest server, alex almost still does xD

[Marisa the Rainmaker]

In Thebes, every character seem to have a 12.5% chance of winning flat =x. The only thing that I could count on is that whenever I bet on four of them at once, one of the four that I didn't bet on will always win the arena matchup.

Cannoneers are less reliable than gunners though, at least in arena matches. The computer AI loves deep insight and doesn't know how to land hits properly enough to stun anything more than 4/9.

[Manager123]

true gunners are better than gunners, Beatrice seems to like both though :)

[terminal]

the method i use is simple...I bet half of my money split between 4 mercs. I also don't bet on any merc that won in the last 2 matches usually eliminating 1-2 people depending if they both are in the arena or not. After that I factor in the formation and the result is usually pretty good. I have won alot more then I have lost and when i win huge i usually buy expensive stuff i can sell later i.e. heavenly horse, power pots, crafting junk, and books...i also got my elephant using my winnings.
The funny thing is that i started with a measily 5m i got from selling stuff grom the giveaways and now i have about 300m+ worth of junk i could sell if i really needed cash. One thing though is betting is not for the weak hearted. I've lost 24m within the first round of arena when all 4 of my picks lost >.<

edit: jeanne is my favorite merc along with the long shot raph

[Spydermage]

i look up to jeanne or chuk. these two ladies wins pretty much. my other favourite is beatrice. :)

[MrSharp]

the method i use is simple...I bet half of my money split between 4 mercs. I also don't bet on any merc that won in the last 2 matches usually eliminating 1-2 people depending if they both are in the arena or not. After that I factor in the formation and the result is usually pretty good. I have won alot more then I have lost and when i win huge i usually buy expensive stuff i can sell later i.e. heavenly horse, power pots, crafting junk, and books...i also got my elephant using my winnings.
The funny thing is that i started with a measily 5m i got from selling stuff grom the giveaways and now i have about 300m+ worth of junk i could sell if i really needed cash. One thing though is betting is not for the weak hearted. I've lost 24m within the first round of arena when all 4 of my picks lost >.<

edit: jeanne is my favorite merc along with the long shot raph

Wow.
That's quite some success you;ve had there.
300+ million?! That;s about 100 times what I've ever made

Does betting on 4 mercs really stand as a betting strategy? Does it not mean that in order to profit you need a merc with long odds winning?

[Aoide]

Hmmm.. i use to bet on the finals the dividends were pretty good... its risky..
then i started betting on winners.. but the dividends there are v low.. i barely and rarely covered my capital..

[MiaFLSurf]

Im a fan of betting on the person with 4 tanks and a shaman to BW them

[HardcoreGamer]

Just don't bet, then everyone is a winner ^^

[Spydermage]

hahahah... but no bet no gain :)

[Marisa the Rainmaker]

I stopped looking at formations after an epic win by Chuk on Thebes with a random scroll of confusion. Now, I just mostly bet small amounts against the odds; they win a lot more than what one might expect, and the dividends for those, on thebes, usually end up in the double digits as everyone goes for Sanjo or Beatrice.

[methane]

Formation does matters....most of the time the tide changing mercs are namely vikings and the healers and brutal will. Well sometimes things does not always goes with your prediction. Well after all its Ai. Scroll can get dispelled so its not wise to think it will always be cast successfully.

[HardcoreGamer]

hm... you have a point ther Marisa... betting small amounts on higher dividents... that could work, althou not as often =/

[Kelnari]

Bet 4/8 first place bets... you have a 50/50 shot at winning > than your wager with most odds I've seen. I Arena religiously! lol

[HardcoreGamer]

Huh? The div will be changing, you cant say you get a 50/50 shot at winning... more like you get a 50/50 shot of guessing correctly but the low div will make you lose money.

[methane]

Actually no. Its not 50/50 if you bet 4/8. Theoretically it is indeed 50/50 but when you take careful consideration about which one to bet on you probably eliminate a few that probably really have a low chance to win. So from there your chances will probably be more than 50/50.

[MrSharp]

Actually no. Its not 50/50 if you bet 4/8. Theoretically it is indeed 50/50 but when you take careful consideration about which one to bet on you probably eliminate a few that probably really have a low chance to win. So from there your chances will probably be more than 50/50.

But then these will also have lower odds, so you win less =p

[MrSharp]

I stopped looking at formations after an epic win by Chuk on Thebes with a random scroll of confusion. Now, I just mostly bet small amounts against the odds; they win a lot more than what one might expect, and the dividends for those, on thebes, usually end up in the double digits as everyone goes for Sanjo or Beatrice.

What do you consider small amounts marisa?

[HardcoreGamer]

But then AI is the thing that throws the statistical analysis of Arena. They are not constant enough to make the statistics count.

[Marisa the Rainmaker]

Small Amounts = less than 30k. I'm not enough of a gambler atm to risk that much money on a 50/50 game (though it's likely that I'll up my betting a bit in the near future).

[MrSharp]

So how much do you usually win, on the occasions that you do win?

[Teesa]

Yep i bet on that chuck match too and won 9m

[Marisa the Rainmaker]

I usually stay away from any bets with dividends lower than 4.0, and since most of the time I bet on 4/8 contestants, I average about 120000-40000=80000 in wins per arena round. Multiply by an appropriate constant for the times when I feel like gambling 30k or 40k.

It's not that much, per se, but I'm not in it for profits. I like the arena more as a source of casual amusement than serious profit-making, and I don't have much of a gambler's spirit, so my bets and wins are proportionally small in a typical round.

[HardcoreGamer]

I do say I lose more than win... lose all the money if you lose, win a bit of money when you win...

[jesada89237]

I decided to stop betting in the arena after recently losing 8mil in one shot...I was pretty confident in myself, since I had super-awesome luck all day that day. Well, my bet makes it to the end of the last battle...then a confusion scroll hits, and then deadly strike comes.

[MiaFLSurf]

Look....with the crappy AI and random scrolls, the way to win is to bet the longshots each time.

Im sorry, but it is always RANDOM who wins...

I may lose 4/5 times.... but when I win that 5th time it pays 10:1 or BETTER.

So you always come out on top....

[Newell]

I managed to bet 500k on 4 people last night. 2 of those four continued, both went to finals, so I had a choice, win 5.3mil or 5.9mil. Choices choices.

Funny fight though, Alkin verse Saijo, he couldn't hit them, took 5 minutes for alkin to kill a useless viking to reach Saijo, on the acocunt of smoke bomb. Alkin defeated Cleo in 3 turns after that. The arties just nailed Cleo.

[MrSharp]

Look....with the crappy AI and random scrolls, the way to win is to bet the longshots each time.

Im sorry, but it is always RANDOM who wins...

I may lose 4/5 times.... but when I win that 5th time it pays 10:1 or BETTER.

So you always come out on top....

Hmmm, only problem is if you don;t win that 5th time or 6th, 7th, 8th,... 100th
;)

[MiaFLSurf]

Its 1/8 your person will win, so you SHOULD win 1/8 times at least.

I just bet on the 4 underdogs every time and win about... 1/3 arena sessions.

It still pays me well.

[MrSharp]

OK.
should is not "will", and with my poor luck so far.

Nevertheless, my guildies are quite into this arena thing it seems so I shall stay up late and give it a go...

May fortune favour the brave! ;)